Can Blumhouse’s New Horror Movie Night Swim Pull A M3GAN At The Box Office? January is and pretty much always has been looked at by Hollywood as a “dump month” for movies that studios have little faith in. It’s also a month where many awards season favorites expand to wide release, helping to class up the joint a bit. But, by and large, it’s a relative wasteland for moviegoers. That being the case, there is often an opportunity for the right movie to capitalize. 2024 will kick off with the horror fiends at Blumhouse trying to do just that with their latest offering: “Night Swim,” a movie about a killer swimming pool. Produced by horror master James Wan (“The Conjuring,” “Saw”) and Blumhouse head Jason Blum, this movie is actually about a family’s swimming pool that turns deadly — but it’s far from the craziest premise we’ve seen in a Blumhouse production. “The Purge” could have gone wrong 20 different ways, and now it’s a massive franchise. In terms of timing, it looks like director Bryce McGuire’s feature directorial debut may be trying to emulate the success of the AI robot gone wrong flick “M3GAN,” which became a breakout hit in January 2023, ultimately going on to make $181 million worldwide following an unexpectedly huge $30 million opening weekend. Can Blumhouse repeat that success in 2024? Frankly, things are looking good. Box Office Pro currently has “Night Swim” taking in between $17 and $25 million on its opening weekend. While budget figures for the film have yet to be revealed, Blumhouse keeps things cost-effective and it’s pretty safe to assume this one was made for $15 million or less. (I would personally bet closer to $10 million.) An opening weekend anywhere near that number would make this movie a surefire winner from the get-go, especially since it will be rolling out in many key markets overseas throughout January and February. Blumhouse rarely misses The cast of “Night Swim” is led by Wyatt Russell (“Monarch: Legacy of Monsters”) and Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”). It is based on McGuire’s short film of the same name and centers on a former major league baseball player (Russell) who is forced into early retirement by a degenerative illness and moves into a new home with his family. Secretly hoping to return to the sport he loves, he convinces his wife that the new home’s swimming pool will be fun for the kids and provide physical therapy for him. But a dark secret lurks just below the surface, and terrifying happenings ensue. Wan and Blum’s latest team-up is going to benefit greatly from a lack of direct competition. No other movie is opening wide against it. The main source of competition will come from some Christmas holdovers like “The Color Purple,” “Ferrari,” and “The Boys in the Boat.” Wan’s own “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” shouldn’t be a big issue as the DC superhero flick floundered in its debut. The only thing that could stand in the film’s way is if it’s poorly received by critics. That said, the horror genre is often less vulnerable to critical opinion — and one that can greatly benefit from rave reviews. At this point, Blumhouse’s track record speaks for itself. The company rarely misses. Even last year’s “Exorcist: Believer” ended up with $137 million worldwide against a $30 million production budget, despite terrible reviews. (The big problem there was the larger, expensive deal made for a full trilogy of “Exorcist” films.) Overall, the hits far outweigh the misses, with last year’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s” becoming a full-on phenomenon, and “Insidious: The Red Door” becoming a bona fide summer hit. If all goes well, this movie will keep the hot streak alive. “Night Swim” hits theaters on January 5, 2024.
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